Pakistan - Before and After Imran Khan
Laying out everything in simple terms and with the way forward considering the challenges Pakistan is facing today
Before;
The year 2017-18
Country’s foreign reserves are just few weeks from default, hovering around mere $8B with State Bank.
Exports have decreased from $25B to $21B in PMLN 5 years, in a period when Bangladesh and Indian exports were booming.
Imports are rising at record levels, whole economy is turning into an import oriented economy.
Industries are shutting down and moving to Bangladesh leaving millions jobless.
Agriculture yields are declining, cotton is falling sharply, wheat was seeing no improvement.
Govt have set up expensive electricity plants with 25 years long contracts, adding trillions of circular debt to national exchequer.
Threat of water shortage is glooming big over Pakistan, international reports are ringing alarm bells, but government has delayed construction of Diamir Basha dam till 2037, none of the other water reservoirs or irrigation project started either.
Record loans are taken but no Industrial growth and no infrastructure for most of Pakistan except Lahore or CPEC route.
No program for the welfare and uplifting of poor masses.
No project to fight environment crisis causing deaths from pollution, floods and shortages.
Massive corruption in tenders and projects, cost of government projects is way higher than normal, contracts were awarded to favorite groups and entities, kickbacks are taken fearlessly and money is laundered without any hassle.
After;
Year 2021
Country’s foreign exchange reserves almost doubled compared to 2018, providing confidence to investors and improving Pakistan’s economic ratings, acknowledged by global financial institutions like Fitch and Moodies.
Exports have increased from $21B to $30B with an optimistic target of achieving $40B by the end of 2023 which will eliminate the need for going to IMF again.
Import substitution through local production of otherwise imported items in progress which will reduce import bill.
Industry expanding at enormous scale, hundreds of new plants and industries creating millions of new jobs and increasing income of masses.
Take textile for instance which employs 1.5 crore of Pakistanis, the industry which was facing shut down in previous government, not only recovered fully but expanded 20% in 3 years creating hundreds of thousand of new jobs and increase in earnings of workers.
Similarly auto sector, cement, steel and I.T witnessing excellent growth resulting in growing GDP and increased per capita income.
The economic growth is reflected in increased purchasing power and record sales of every product in the country.
Government handled two huge crisis brilliantly;
. First the Pak-India border airspace confrontation which caused complete halt of several activities in country for around 6 months
. Second the global pandemic where everyone was shouting for lockdown, there was one man Imran Khan who said if we shut down everything the poor will die of hunger hence he went against all the intellectuals and geeks and allowed industry and construction to open. His decision saved Pakistan from a never ending crisis of Industrial collapse and poverty storm
Government is encouraging new industries like mobile phone production, tourism, ecommerce, digital payments, shipment and green economy.
Government focusing on cheap electricity projects and have negotiated previous government’s contracts. The biggest success came when IPPs agreed on a concession of 800 billion rupees from earlier agreed amount in previous government’s contracts.
Government returning record loan payments. In their 5 year term PTI would be paying a whopping $55 Billion compared to PMLN’s $27B returned in their 5 years.
PTI Government is acquiring new loans to manage this chaos of debt repayments but they are using the acquired loans for massive infrastructure and national importance projects including but not limited to;
. Economic zones (KP, Punjab, Baluchistan),
. Dams (3 mega dams and several mid size dams),
. Roads & motorways (Swat motorway, D.I Khan motorway, Khuzdar, Gawadar, Peshawar, Jehlum, Salt range, Mianwali, Khushab, Layyah and dozens of other Highways awaited from last several decades),
. Hospitals (6 Mother and Child Hospitals in Punjab, and several hospitals being upgraded or expanded in every district)
. Universities (New universities in partnerships with top foreign universities, and construction or upgradation of universities in every district)
Govt addressing the existential threat of water shortage and declining agriculture yields which were raising food security concerns. By spending hundreds of billions on 3 mega dams, 2 mega projects of Irrigation and Canals (Jalalpur and Thal Canal) and several medium sized dams from KP to South Punjab to Baluchistan.
These measures will not only rescue Pakistan from falling in droughts but also increase the agricultural yield 2 to 3 times in 10 major districts.
A comprehensive and first time fully digitized support program launched to help and uplift the poor segments of society, Ehsaas program and Free Health insurance are a revolution in the making for welfare of those left behind.
After removing 800K ineligible or fraud recipients from Benazir program, Govt did a comprehensive digital poverty survey and now providing support to 1 crore families with cash stipends, education expenses, interest free loans, scholarships and even nutrition programs for new born babies and mothers to prevent stunting growth.
Pakistan not only launched largest plantation drive but also become an icon of environment cause and green economy. Saudis and UAE are already asking Pakistan’s help in their plantation drives.
Pakistan’s international standing is 10x better across the world and now people view Pakistan as a dignified ally or fearless state instead of complicit client country like earlier.
Pakistan, first time in 70 years have got a unified Single National Curriculum, a foundation stone in building of any nation, which has not only upgraded the teaching content but has added focus on personality development, inclusiveness, tolerance and making our kids better human being overall, removing the divides of traditional schools and madrassahs, and divides of English and Urdu mediums.
Billions worth of government land was recovered in Punjab which is either turned into forests or being used for welfare projects.
Government reshaped the bank financing mechanisms and now citizens form lower and middle class are easily getting loans on easier terms for their business or housing. Billions of rupees already disbursed to thousands of applicants for house construction at installments equal to their monthly rents.
So how does it look from here?
Pakistan’s economic woes are far from over, inflation is a big problem at the moment and any financial turmoil in global markets disrupts our growth and brings price hikes, causing public to suffer.
However, if government succeeds in maintaining the current trajectory in their economic, infrastructure & welfare projects & policies, we are surely seeing a far better Pakistan at the end of these 5 years compared to previous several decades.
If exports can cross the ambitious goal of $40 billion which now in fact looks very much doable, we will pretty much come out of trade deficit cycle and won’t have to look towards IMF for financing our debt re-payments or import bills.
Ehsaas program provided with more budget, will uplift millions out of poverty citing its scientific approach towards poverty alleviation
New universities and focus on technical education will improve the quality of our workforce which will not only a key role in success of CPEC’s industrial phase but will also improve our human resource exports resulting in higher remittances.
But Pakistan is not a country of a political party or a political personality, its a country of 22 Million who are the owners of this land. Hence either they are satisfied with the management or not, they are still the main stakeholders and they are the ones who will bear the loss if country goes the down hill.
So Pakistan’s prosperity will require one key ingredient, the youth of this country stepping up and taking lead in business, education, job creation and in politics as well. Pakistan is going to survive current and future challenges but its the wellbeing of its people that requires every single person of this 220 Million nation to have a keen intention of playing their role in whatever positive means they can.
I.T sector is one such example where youth of this country is making huge leaps forward on their own, bringing in big investments, creating new jobs and increasing income of people working in the sector.
Hence, if all the countrymen chip in supporting each other in education, careers, entrepreneurship, creating jobs or doing their jobs with dedication and can keep faith, then this 5th largest nation and its untapped economy can definitely become a powerful and resounding success.
